EIC Connect Energy Brasil 2025, held this month in Rio de Janeiro, brought timely discussions that cut straight to the big questions about the future of energy production in Brazil.
One of the clearest warnings came from the opening session on pre-salt oil production (that’s crude trapped beneath thick layers of salt deep under the seabed in ultra-deep waters). Projections show output peaking around 2030 and beginning to decline within five to six years from there. According to one presentation, this production trajectory reflects a slowdown in exploration over the past decade, including a sharp drop in 2013–2014. Panelists said that this short window called for urgent new exploration incentives so new reserves can be brought online to offset declines and maintain production.
On the technology side, the pace of change is staggering. The move towards all-electric subsea equipment is no longer theoretical, according to one speaker. It's advancing, with the promise of major gains in efficiency and sustainability.
Pipeline innovation is also progressing. New pipeline designs are preventing corrosion from CO₂, while special rigid-flexible risers are lowering installation costs and boosting safety in ultra-deep waters. These risers are a hybrid pipe system, combining a rigid steel pipe with a flexible section to handle the motion of a floating platform.
But Brazil's energy story isn't all about oil. The country is pressing ahead in new energies too. One presentation showcased large-scale projects to produce sustainable aviation fuel from macaúba, a crop yielding many times more oil per hectare than soya.
Another big theme was green hydrogen. One speaker sketched out an export-led approach with multi-gigawatt projects across the country, including states such as Piauí, Sergipe and Maranhão, with the first commercial unit aimed for 2030. This export-led approach goes beyond hydrogen to include ammonia and methanol. But this isn't without hurdles. Grid access was flagged as the major obstacle, and speakers said Brazil will also need local electrolyser production if the supply chain is to keep pace.
Regulation and market design was a common thread. Speakers cited clearer rules, enforceable targets, and greater transparency as essential to stimulate demand, especially in the gas sector, which several discussions described as fragmented and conflict-prone. The ambition and the technology are here, but as panelists stressed, Brazil’s full energy potential will only be realised once the policy environment and market rules catch up.
EIC Connect events bring together industry leaders, policymakers, and innovators to share insights and explore opportunities across global energy markets.
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